Friday, November 11, 2016

Trump the RINO: We Might Get Lucky

This election at first appears like a disaster for progressives: GOP captured the presidency, House, Senate, and at least one Supreme Court pick. But everyone may be counting their chickens before they are hatched.

Trump is centrist. He kissed up to the right during the GOP primaries, but his history shows centrist views, or at least inconsistent stances. He is stubborn and will do what he wants regardless of what either party wants. If the GOP gets in his way, he may throw them a Supreme Court pick as a bone to chew on to quiet them for a while. Thus, we progressives may have to accept we'll take a big hit on the Court, and probably climate change. But other categories may fare better:

Health Care

While much of the GOP wants to abandon ObamaCare and turn the clock back, Trump has listed a vague healthcare program on his site. It's possible he may shuffle ObamaCare a bit, fix the parts known to have problems (GOP has blocked fixes), and then rename it "TrumpCare". As long his name is on it, he will defend and protect it. Who cares who gets official credit: feed his narcissism and a modified form of ObamaCare may survive.

Undocumented Immigrants

Mass deportation is impractical and may trigger massive riots in places like Los Angeles. Trump will probably try it, but he will encounter tough resistance and logistical problems. Instead, some kind of deal may eventually be struck whereby most are given amnesty if they pay a penalty or periodic fee. That fee may even pay for his wall. It would allow him to claim he satisfied the promise that "Mexico will pay for it", or at least many Mexicans will. This process won't start out smooth, but could end up smooth.
 
Trade and Currency Rates

Fear of trade wars has made many economists and business leaders worried. However, if Trump turns out to be a tough but effective negotiator, we may indeed get better trade and currency terms without significant retaliation. China may make a lot of noise initially, but in the end their economy relies more on exports than ours do and so they have more to lose than us: a trade war would hurt them more than it would us such that they are better off making a deal than in using heavy retaliation.

Foreign Policy

Trump shows hints of isolationism. This is helpful because his ham-handed approach to international diplomacy would otherwise be a problem. If he doesn't poke around in other yards, he's less likely to break stuff. Maybe he knows this deep down and that's why he avoids it. Meddling in the Middle East rarely gets us anything good anyhow. (Even Obama gradually tilted toward disengagement, despite GOP complaints.) Negotiating better terms with our NATO partners could also be a plus if he does it right.

Infrastructure

This is one area where Trump closely matched Hillary's position. His infrastructure plans may even be too bold for the GOP, who will be afraid it will hurt the deficit. But he can rely on Democrat backing in Congress if some Republicans give him resistance.

Taxes

Although he has waffled in the past, lately Trump says he wants to lower taxes for business, the wealthy, and everyone else. The problem is that a loss of tax revenue may inflame the deficit. He talks about cutting the size of the Federal Government to help out on debt, but it is already fairly lean due to the Great Recession and other political pressures. He may thus have to back down on most cuts to pay for his other programs.

EPA

Trump says he wants to trim the EPA. But, Trump is a germaphobe, often afraid to touch people in crowds, and thus probably cares about undesirable chemicals to some degree. I can't see somebody being paranoid of germs but not of harmful chemicals.


Thus, progressives won't get everything, but it may not the be right-wing blood bath it initially appears. Let's see what the Wildcard President actually does.

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