This election at first appears like a
disaster for progressives: GOP captured the presidency, House,
Senate, and at least one Supreme Court pick. But everyone may be
counting their chickens before they are hatched.
Trump is centrist. He kissed up to the
right during the GOP primaries, but his history shows centrist views,
or at least inconsistent stances. He is stubborn and will do what he
wants regardless of what either party wants. If the GOP gets in his
way, he may throw them a Supreme Court pick as a bone to chew on to
quiet them for a while. Thus, we progressives may have to accept we'll
take a big hit on the Court, and probably climate change. But other
categories may fare better:
Health Care
While much of the GOP wants to abandon
ObamaCare and turn the clock back, Trump has listed a vague
healthcare program on his site. It's possible he may shuffle
ObamaCare a bit, fix the parts known to have problems (GOP has
blocked fixes), and then rename it "TrumpCare". As long his
name is on it, he will defend and protect it. Who cares who gets
official credit: feed his narcissism and a modified form of ObamaCare
may survive.
Undocumented Immigrants
Mass deportation is impractical and may
trigger massive riots in places like Los Angeles. Trump will probably
try it, but he will encounter tough resistance and logistical
problems. Instead, some kind of deal may eventually be struck whereby
most are given amnesty if they pay a penalty or periodic fee. That
fee may even pay for his wall. It would allow him to claim he
satisfied the promise that "Mexico will pay for it", or at
least many Mexicans will. This process won't start out smooth, but
could end up smooth.
Trade and Currency Rates
Fear of trade wars has made many
economists and business leaders worried. However, if Trump turns out
to be a tough but effective negotiator, we may indeed get better
trade and currency terms without significant retaliation. China may
make a lot of noise initially, but in the end their economy relies
more on exports than ours do and so they have more to lose than us: a
trade war would hurt them more than it would us such that they are
better off making a deal than in using heavy retaliation.
Foreign Policy
Trump shows hints of isolationism. This
is helpful because his ham-handed approach to international diplomacy
would otherwise be a problem. If he doesn't poke around in other
yards, he's less likely to break stuff. Maybe he knows this deep down
and that's why he avoids it. Meddling in the Middle East rarely gets
us anything good anyhow. (Even Obama gradually tilted toward
disengagement, despite GOP complaints.) Negotiating better terms with
our NATO partners could also be a plus if he does it right.
Infrastructure
This is one area where Trump closely
matched Hillary's position. His infrastructure plans may even be too
bold for the GOP, who will be afraid it will hurt the deficit. But he
can rely on Democrat backing in Congress if some Republicans give him resistance.
Taxes
Although he has waffled in the past,
lately Trump says he wants to lower taxes for business, the wealthy,
and everyone else. The problem is that a loss of tax revenue may
inflame the deficit. He talks about cutting the size of the Federal
Government to help out on debt, but it is already fairly lean due to
the Great Recession and other political pressures. He may thus have
to back down on most cuts to pay for his other programs.
EPA
Trump says he wants to trim the EPA.
But, Trump is a germaphobe, often afraid to touch people in crowds,
and thus probably cares about undesirable chemicals to some degree. I
can't see somebody being paranoid of germs but not of harmful
chemicals.
Thus, progressives won't get
everything, but it may not the be right-wing blood bath it initially
appears. Let's see what the Wildcard President actually does.
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