Going all one way or the other will just create see-saw national politics where 51% tell 49% what to do, and the party in power often swings back and forth like a pendulum. Thus, finding a compromise seems the better option than repeated political whip-lash. A compromise won't guarantee a given party will stick to it, but increases the chances.
Don't get me wrong here, I don't wish to offend anyone, but am merely trying to make both sides the least frustrated by balancing the tradeoffs. Absolutism and idealism will fail in practice; I'm just the messenger. Both sides will never be fully satisfied, but compromises can be found.
So here is a rough draft of compromises:
First, for sports that directly rely on size or weight, have an upper limit for size and/or weight for the transgender athlete (TA). The assigned weight class for say boxing would depend on lab tests of volunteers and tuning over time based on actual sports results. There would be a bipartisan evaluation committee.
Because male-to-female TA's (allegedly) have thicker bones and joints, a direct weight-to-weight conversion may not be realistic, but the charts can adjust for that. For example, a TA swimmer weighing 150 pounds may be slated to be equivalent to a 155 pound cis athlete based on the above scoring techniques, and may be bumped up a grade level or equivalent.
Since most adult-level sports don't have grade or weight classes, other techniques may need to be applied. For example, for sports that depend on speed, have a "handicap" delay, such as starting later. For track and field, their starting line can be drawn further back from the usual point. Maybe the delay time would depend on TA's size and/or weight. And I see no reason to handicap a TA who is small in stature; the adjustments would only be applied to larger individuals. Lab tests and actual results-based adjustments would determine the time delay tables.
For example, if TA's are 3% of weight-class X, then they should win X-class matches about 3% of the time. If the win rate deviates too much from 3%, then the TA class tables are adjusted. (Since the actual quantities for any given weight class may be small, linear regression may be used across classes to "smooth the gaps".)
For team sports, perhaps larger TA's can be required to wear weights or flexibility restraints on their joints to slow down their reaction times.
Such will indeed take a while to tune, but is possible with time and patience. Very few perennial social conflicts have an instant fix such that time and patience may be our only option.
